US looking at rethink of strategy in Iraq
By Peter Spiegel
Published: January 11 2005 02:00 | Last updated: January 11 2005 02:00

With less than three weeks to go before the Iraqi elections, there are increasing signs that the Pentagon is completely rethinking its Iraq strategy, a reassessment that is having an impact on everything from the defence budget to the way soldiers are deployed to combat areas.

The most visible sign of this was last week's announcement that a retired four-star general, Gary Luck, would head a team to assess the US-led operation in Iraq.

The Pentagon has insisted that Gen Luck's mission is limited to evaluating the continuing struggle to make the Iraqi security forces more effective. But administration officials, including President George W. Bush, have indicated that the task force has a wider brief,and could recommend more sweeping changes.

The Pentagon has been tight-lipped at the impetus for the re-evaluation, declining to comment on whether it was requested by field commanders or Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary. A spokesman for Mr Rumsfeld said: "If it turns out that everybody is happy with the way this goes, there'll be a thousand people claiming credit for it. If it turns out that it's less useful than others wished it might be, they'll all blame Rumsfeld."

But the Pentagon's fresh look comes amid growing signs that the wearing-down of the military, particularly the army - long predicted by defence experts because of extended and high-intensity rotations in Iraq - may be showing the first signs of having an impact.

This is most glaringly evident in the army national guard and reserves, part-time soldiers that now comprise about 40 per cent of US forces in Iraq.

Last month, the general who heads the army reserves complained in a memo to his superiors that current deployment policies meant his units were "rapidly degenerating into a 'broken' force".

The memo, widely reported by the media, led to fresh criticisms by senior members of Congress, including Republicans.

"There is no question that we are straining our guard forces at this juncture, as well as the reservists," said Bill Frist, the Republican leader of the Senate. "The repeated missions, the return after a brief time back home, puts a stress and a strain on them."

Although the Pentagon has been reluctant to discuss it, there are also signs that the full-time army is struggling to meet its commitments. Budget documents obtained by the Financial Times and other news organisations this month show that big cuts in high-tech weapons programmes proposed by the defence secretary's office would be redirected to the army. The Pentagon insists any new money going to the army will be used for "transformation" - the jargon used to describe the efforts to make the army a lighter and more deployable force. But experts think much of that extra cash will end up being used to maintain and repair army equipment battered by extended time in Iraq.

Behind much of the renewed concern lies an increasingly dim assessment of the Iraqi security forces. Although US commanders have praised their efforts publicly, particularly in November's assault in Falluja, experts who have studied the Iraqi forces said such achievements have been limited to a few specialised units. Overall, Iraqi security forces continue to fall below expectations.

Walter Slocombe, who oversaw the early rebuilding of Iraqi forces in the Coalition Provisional Authority, said: "Progress even in the simple things is a lot slower than we would have hoped and I'm not sure I know why." The replacement of US forces by upgrading Iraqi security units remains the US's prime exit strategy. But with such slow progress, Pentagon planners have been forced to consider a far longer deployment of American troops, despite recent US polls showing growing political opposition to the war among voters.

Senior Pentagon officials have acknowledged that several options are being discussed. However, they have declined to specify whether specific recommendations currently being mooted in public - including a permanent increase in the army by 30,000 troops, or extending tours of reservists for more than two years - are under consideration.

A Pentagon spokesman said: "The army is currently assessing all of the other options that can be done temporarily. So there's thinking going on, and when there's thinking, there's a lot of leaking, and when there's leaking, there's a lot of breathless reporting."