THE ROVING EYE
Jul 25, 2012
Once upon a time,
early in the previous century, a line in the sand was drawn, from Acre to
Kirkuk. Two colonial powers - Britain and France - nonchalantly divided the
Middle East between themselves; everything north of the line in the sand was
France's; south, it was Britain's.
Many blowbacks - and concentric
tragedies - later, a new line in the sand is being drawn by Saudi Arabia and
Qatar. Between Syria and Iraq, they want it all. Talk about the return of the
repressed; now, as part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization-Gulf
Cooperation Council compound, they're in bed with their former colonial masters.
Blow by blow
No matter what militarized Western corporate
there's no endgame in Syria - yet. On the contrary; the
sectarian game is just beginning.
It's 1980s Afghanistan all over again.
The over 100 heavily armed gangs engaged in civil war in Syria are overflowing
with Gulf Cooperation Council funds financing their Russian RPGs bought on the
black market. Salafi-jihadis cross into Syria in droves - not only from Iraq but
also Kuwait, Algeria, Tunisia and Pakistan, following enraged calls by their
imams. Kidnapping, raping and slaughtering pro-Assad regime civilians is
becoming the law of the land.
They go after Christians with a vengeance.
 They force Iraqi exiles in Damascus to leave, especially those settled in
Sayyida Zainab, the predominantly Shi'ite neighborhood named after Prophet
Muhammad's grand-daughter, buried in the beautiful local mosque. The BBC, to its
credit, at least followed the story. 
They perform summary
executions; Iraq's deputy interior minister Adnan al-Assadi told AFP how Iraqi
border guards saw the Free Syrian Army (FSA) take control of a border outpost
and then "executed 22 Syrian soldiers in front of the eyes of Iraqi soldiers".
The Bab al-Hawa crossing between Syria and Turkey was overrun by no less
than 150 multinational self-described mujahideen  - coming from Algeria,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, Chechnya and even
France, many proclaiming their allegiance to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
They burned a lot of Turkish trucks. They shot their own promo video.
They paraded their al-Qaeda flag. And they declared the whole border area an
Hand over your terrorist ID
There's no way to
understand the Syrian dynamics without learning that most FSA commanders are not
Syrians, but Iraqi Sunnis. The FSA could only capture the Abu Kamal border
crossing between Syria and Iraq because the whole area is controlled by Sunni
tribes viscerally antagonistic towards the al-Maliki government in Baghdad. The
free flow of mujahideen, hardcore jihadis and weapons between Iraq and Syria is
now more than established.
The idea of the Arab League - behaving as
NATO-GCC's fully robed spokesman - offering exile to Bashar al-Assad may be as
ridiculous as the notion of the CIA supervising which mujahideen and jihadi
outfits may have access to the weapons financed by Qatar and the Saudis.
At first, it might have been just a bad joke. After all, the exile offer
came from those exact same paragons of democracy, the House of Saud and Qatar,
who control the Arab League and are financing the mujahideen and the anti-Syria
Baghdad, though, publicly condemned the exile offer. And the
aftermath - in fact on the same day - was worthy of The Joker (yes, Batman's
foe); a wave of anti-Shi'ite bombings in Iraq, with over 100 people dead, duly
claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq, al-Qaeda's local franchise. Spokesman Abu
Bakr al-Baghdadi energetically urged the Sunni tribes in Anbar and Nineveh to
join the jihad and topple the "infidel" government in Baghdad.
mujahideen/jihadi back and forth between Syria and Iraq has been more than
confirmed by Izzat al-Shahbandar, a senior member of Iraq's Parliament and close
aide to Prime Minister al-Maliki. Baghdad even has updated lists. The crossover
could only spawn more frenetic Orwellian newspeak, nailed by the website Moon of
Mujahideen and jihadis active in Iraq are now "Iraqi
insurgents". And mujahideen and jihadis active in Syria remain the usual "Syrian
rebels". They have been all decommissioned as "terrorists". Under this logic,
the Colorado Batman shooter may also be described as an "insurgent".
Follow the money
As it stands, the romanticized Syrian
"rebels" plus the insurgents formerly known as terrorists cannot win against the
Syria military - not even with the Saudis and Qataris showering them with loads
of cash and weapons.
Nor is there any evidence the regime is
contemplating a retreat to the Alawite mountains in northern Syria, as evoked by
this collective foreign policy blog discussion. After all the "rebels" do not control any
What's certain is who would profit from Syria being
progressively balkanized. The House of Saud and Qatar would love nothing better
than to have the civil war exported to Iraq and Lebanon; in their very narrow
calculations, that would eventually yield fellow Sunni regimes.
expect Saudi and Qatari funds buying every well-connected Syrian regime
apparatchik in sight - even while the urban Sunni bourgeosie still has not
abandoned the ship.
And as the civil war spreads out, a tsunami of
weapons will keep inundating Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and of course Turkey,
boosting assorted guerrilla outfits, Kurdish included - yet one more facet of
now ostracized neo-Ottoman Turkey impotently watching nation states carved out
of that 1920s colonial line in the sand being smashed.
this will always be a war by proxy; essentially Saudi Arabia vs Iran - with the
House of Saud behind hardcore Islamists of all colors compared to Qatar
supporting "its" Muslim Brotherhood. But most of all this is the US-NATO-GCC vs
Israel's motives go way beyond the Saudi/Qatari sectarian lust.
Israel's Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has just excavated a Bushism - calling
Iran-Syria-Hezbollah an "axis of evil". What Tel Aviv wants in the long run is
clear; for Washington, Obama administration or not, to bring down the axis.
Meanwhile, this long-term goal does not prevent Defense Minister Ehud
Barak from getting crazy - speculating on an invasion of Syria based on a
hypothetical transfer of Syrian anti-aircraft missiles or even chemical weapons
Washington for its part would love at least a
pliable/puppet Sunni regime in Damascus to turbo-charge the encircling of Iran -
without increasing Israel's substantial fears. Meanwhile, what passes for "smart
power" is no more than glorified wishful thinking. Here in detail is how
pro-Israel functionaries in the US are designing post-Assad Syria. 
Meet the new Bane
For all its production values, NATO's jihad
- in conjunction with al-Qaeda affiliates and copycats - still has not delivered
regime change. UN Security Council sanctions won't be forthcoming, as Beijing
and Moscow have already stressed three times. So Plan Bs keep surfacing all the
time. The latest is straight from the Iraq playbook; Damascus will attack
civilians with chemical weapons. This lasted only for a few news cycles.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has already made it clear; regime
change is anathema, especially for a reason that eludes most in the West -
jihadis at the gates of Damascus means they are a stone's throw from the
Caucasus, the possible new pearl in a lethal collar bound to destabilize Muslim
Blowback meanwhile is ready to strike like the Medusa. What is
for all practical purposes NATO-GCC mujahideen/jihadi death squads will be more
than happy to bleed Syria across sectarian lines - in the sand and especially in
urban areas. It's hunting season now, not only for Alawites but also Christians
(10% of the population).
A foreign policy that privileges Sunni jihadis
formerly known as terrorists to create a "democratic" state in the Middle East
seems to have been conjured by Bane - the Hannibal Lecter meets Darth Vader bad
guy in The Dark Knight Rises, the final chapter of the Batman trilogy.
And yes, we are his creators. While the best lack all conviction, and the worst
are full of passionate intensity, a masked Sunni jihadi superman is slouching
towards Damascus to be born.
Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid
War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. His
most recent book is Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). He may be
reached at email@example.com
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